Northland Property Market

Is it worth buying a property in Northland? Explore the data and find out. Last updated 11th January 2021

Ed McKnight

Ed McKnight

Economist, property investor and host of the Property Academy Podcast
Introduction

Looking to invest or buy a property in Northland?

This article breaks down all the most essential facts about the Northland property market.

The Northland property market is made up of 3 districts and 53 suburbs. These districts are the Far North, Whangarei and Kaipara.

Median Northland House Price

Northland’s Median House Price is $650,000

As at September 2021, the median house price in Northland is $650,000. This is up from $290,000 10 years earlier. That means that the median Northland property increased in value by 8.41% each year, or $36,000 on average.

The most expensive suburb in Northland is Mangawhai Heads, which has a median house price of $1,151,900 and is located in Kaipara district. That means that Mangawhai Heads’ median house price is 1.81x Northland’s median.

The least expensive suburb in Northland is Kaikoe, which has a median house price of $ $311,150 and is located in the Far North district. That means that Kaikoe’s median house price is 51.15% cheaper than Northland’s median.

Over the last 2 years (Sep 2019 - Sep 2021) , Kaikoe had the fastest-growing house prices in all of Northland, at 23.93% per year. That is 57.10% faster than the median Northland house price over this time period.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Tinopai, which grew at a rate of 5.74% per year. That’s 62.31% slower than the median Northland house price.

Northland House Prices v.s. NZ House Prices

Northland’s Median House Price is 1.07% above its long term average

On average, over the last 28 years, Northland’s median house price has been 83.34% of New Zealand’s median house price.

Assuming the long term fundamentals of either property market have not changed, Northland’s median house price should track back to this long term average.

That suggests that when Northland’s median house price is below its long term average, there is a buying opportunity. When Northland’s median house price is above its long term average, there are buying opportunities in other regions.

As of July 2021, Northland’s median house price was 84.41% of New Zealand’s median house price. That is 1.07% above its long term ratio, which suggests that Northland house prices are roughly where they should be over the long term compared to other regions.

Council Breakdown – Over/Undervalued

Where are House Prices Most Over and Undervalued within the Northland Region?

This map shows a breakdown of how over or under-valued each council area is right now in the Northland property market. These figures are calculated exactly the same way as the graph in the above section.

Kaipara district appears to be the most over-valued. House prices there are about 6.46% above where we would usually expect them to be over the long term.

Far North district, on the other hand, appears to be slightly under-valued. House prices in this district appear to be 13.34% below where we would expect them to be.

This means that we've got greater confidence that Far-North would receive a higher rate of capital growth (house price increases) over the next 5-10 years compared to Kaipara.

Affordability

Where Are the Most Affordable Property In Northland?

The map below depicts which districts within the Northland Region have the most and least affordable house prices (Core Logic, July 2021).

The darker the district, the more expensive the average house price for that area...

The Kaipara district is by far the most expensive district within the Northland region, with properties reaching an average price of $755,955 (July 2021).

By comparison, the Far North District is the most affordable, with an average house price of $586,097. That's a $169,858 difference compared to Kaipara.

Population Growth

Which Part of The Northland Gets The Highest Population Growth?

The map below illustrates the projected population growth for each district within the Northland Region over the next 25 years (2018 - 2043).

The darker the district, the more the population is predicted to expand in that area...

Over this period, the Whangarei district is expected to see the most growth of all the council areas within the region – 18.43% in total.

By contrast, the Far North district is also expected to grow, but only by 2.07% over the same timeframe.

Far North Property Market

Far North Property Market

The Far North district is made up of 20 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Kerikeri, which has a median house price of $890,400. While the most affordable suburb is Kaikohe, which has a median house price of $311,150.

Over the last 24 months, of all the Far North district suburbs (Sep 2019 - Sep 2021), Kaikohe had the fastest-growing house, at 23.93% per year. That is 57.10% faster than the median Northland house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Waipapa, which grew at a rate of 11.79% per year. That’s 22.56% slower than the median Northland house price.

Whangarei Property Market

Whangarei Property Market

The Whangarei district is made up of 23 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Matapouri, which had a median house price of $1,186,650 as at September 2021. While the most affordable suburb is Raumanga, which has a median house price of $ 497,100.

Over the last 24 months of all the Whangarei district suburbs (Sep 2019 - Sep 2021), Raumanga had the fastest-growing house, at 18.18% per year. That is 19.39% faster than the median Northland house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Ngunguru, which grew at a rate of 10.03% per year. That’s 34.15% slower than the median Northland house price.

Kaipara Property Market

Kaipara Property Market

The Kaipara district is made up of 10 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Mangawhai Heads, which has a median house price of $1,151,900. While the most affordable suburb is Ruawai, which has a median house price of $ 364,200 (September 2021)

Over the last 24 months of all the Kaipara district suburbs (Sep 2019 - Sep 2021), Ruawai had the fastest-growing house, at 18.37% per year. That is 20.59% faster than the median Northland house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Tinopai, which grew at a rate of 5.74% per year. That’s 62.31% slower than the median Northland house price.

Other Property Markets

Other Property Markets To Look Into

If you found this article useful, then you might also like our analyses on the other property markets in New Zealand. You can read all about the Auckland property market, the Wellington property market and the Christchurch property market by clicking any of the links mentioned here.

Ed McKnight

Ed McKnight

Ed McKnight is the host of the Property Academy Podcast – NZ's #1 business podcast. He is an economist, having studied at the University of Auckland and the University of Waikato. He's a frequent writer for Informed Investor Magazine and has contributed to NewsHub, Stuff, OneRoof and Property Investor Magazine.