Introduction

Looking to Invest or buy a property in Nelson?

This article breaks down all the most essential facts about the Nelson property market.

The Nelson property market is made up of 1 district, Nelson City, and 20 suburbs.

Median Nelson House Price

Nelson's Median House Price is $802,000

As at September 2021, the median house price in Nelson is $802,000. This is up from $335,000 10 years earlier. That means that the median Nelson property increased in value by 9.12% each year, or $46,700 on average.

The most expensive suburb in Nelson is Britannia Heights, which has a median house price of $1,367,450. That means that Britannia Heights median house price is 1.85x the region's median.

The least expensive suburb in Nelson is Toi Toi, which has a median house price of $551,150. That means that Toi Toi's median house price is 25.36% cheaper than Nelson's median.

Nelson House Prices Comparison with NZ

Nelson's Median House Price is 4.46% below its long term average

On average, over the last 28 years, Nelson's median house price has been 94.65% of New Zealand’s median house price.

Assuming the long term fundamentals of either property market have not changed, Nelson's median house price should trackback to this long term average.

That suggests that when Nelson's median house price is below its long term average, there is a buying opportunity. When Nelson's median house price is above its long term average, there are buying opportunities in other regions.

As of July 2021, Nelson's median house price was 90.19% of New Zealand’s median house price. That is 4.46% below its long term ratio, which suggests that there may be a small buying opportunity in Nelson relative to the rest of the country.

Council Breakdown – Over/Undervalued

Where are House Prices Most Over and Undervalued within the Nelson Region?

This map shows a breakdown of how over or under-valued each council area is right now in and around the Nelson property market. While we know that Marlborough and Tasman aren't part of the Nelson region, they have been included in the map below for a better comparison of the Nelson property market and because we know some of you will want to invest there! These figures are calculated exactly the same way as the graph in the above section.

Tasman's house prices appears to be the least under-valued. House prices there are about 5.54% lower than where we would usually expect them to be over the long term.

Nelson, on the other hand, appears to be the most under-valued. House prices in this district appear to be 8.69% below where we would expect them to be.

This means that we've got greater confidence that Nelson would receive a higher rate of capital growth (house price increases) over the next 5-10 years compared to Tasman

Affordability

Where Are the Most Affordable Property In the Nelson ?

The map below depicts which districts in and around the Nelson Region have the most and least affordable house prices (Core Logic, July 2021).

The darker the district, the more expensive the average house price for that area...

The Nelson district is by far the most expensive district of the 3 regions displayed above, with properties reaching an average price of $758,808 (July 2021).

By comparison, the Marlborough District is the most affordable, with an average house price of just $682,122. That's an slight $76,686 difference compared to Nelson.

Population Growth

Which Part of Nelson Gets The Highest Population Growth?

The map below illustrates the projected population growth for each district in and around the Nelson Region over the next 25 years (2018 - 2043).

The darker the district, the more the population is predicted to expand in that area...

Over this period, the Nelson district is expected to see the most growth of all the council areas in and around the region – 11.97% in total. (Yes, it's confusing that there is both a Nelson District and a Nelson Region).

By contrast, the Marlborough district is expected to expand by just 2.61% over the same timeframe.

Nelson City Property Market

Nelson City Property Market

Over the last 2 years of all Nelson suburbs (September 2019 - September 2021), Beachville had the fastest-growing house prices, at 13.51% per year. That is 12.59% faster than the median Nelson City house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Nelson, which grew at a rate of 10.27% per year. That’s 14.44% slower than the median Nelson house price.

Other Property Markets

Other Property Markets to Look Into

If you found this article useful, then you might also like our analyses on the other property markets in New Zealand. You can read all about the Auckland property market, the Wellington property market and the Christchurch property market by clicking any of the links mentioned here.

Ed McKnight

Ed McKnight

Ed McKnight is the host of the Property Academy Podcast – NZ's #1 business podcast. He is an economist, having studied at the University of Auckland and the University of Waikato. He's a frequent writer for Informed Investor Magazine and has contributed to NewsHub, Stuff, OneRoof and Property Investor Magazine.