Property Market

9 min read

What's happening in the Nelson property market right now?

Ed solo

Author: Ed McKnight

Our Resident Economist, with a GradDipEcon and over five years at Opes Partners, is a trusted contributor to NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, Stuff, Business Desk, and OneRoof.

Reviewed by: Laine Moger

Journalist and Property Educator with six years of experience, holds a Bachelor of Communication (Honours) from Massey University.

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Nelson's median house price is $732,500

Nelson house prices

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As at February 2024, the median house price in Nelson is $732,500. This is up from $350,000 10 years earlier. That means that the median Nelson property increased in value by 7.66% each year, or $38,250 on average.

The most expensive suburb in Nelson is Marybank, which has a median house price of $877,300. That means that Marybank's median house price is 120% of Nelson’s median.

The least expensive suburb in Nelson is Toi Toi, which has a median house price of $538,050. That means that Toi Toi's median house price is 73% of Nelson’s median.

Over the last 24 months (Mar 2022 - Mar 2024), Beachville had the fastest-growing house prices in all of Nelson, at -5% per year.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Tahunanui, which grew at a rate of -6% per year.

NZ Property Market Update: February 2024

Nelson's house price is 4.84% below its long term average

Is Nelson over or undervalued?

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Nelson house prices look relatively cheap compared to where we'd expect them to be.

In the above graph, when the purple line is below the baseline (black line), Nelson's house values are undervalued. This suggests there is a buying opportunity in the region.

When Nelson’s house values are above the baseline, other regions have buying opportunities.

How is this calculated? Click on the accordions below to find out.

Where do house prices grow the fastest in the nelson property market?

Gross yields vary widely depending on which suburb you chose to investigate.

So, which suburbs in the Nelson property market have the highest gross rental yields?

Navigate the map to find the suburbs where houses produce the most cash for their investors.

How fast will Nelson population grow?

Over the next 25 years (2023 - 2048), Nelson city's population is expected to grow by 5.32%.

That means Nelson city's population is expected to grow from 54,500 to 57,400 people. An increase of 2,900.

How are Nelson's house prices changing right now?

Nelson's capital growth rate

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The above graph shows how quickly house prices have increased or decreased over the previous 12 months. This is also known as ‘capital growth’.

So does this show how the property market is going right now?

Yes and no.

It shows how expensive properties are today compared to 12 months ago.

While this will give us a good sense of how property values have changed, it’s not the only thing to consider.

You might also look at how quickly property values are going up (or down) from month to month, the number of property sales and how quickly properties are selling.

What is the median rent in Nelson?

Nelson's median rent

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The above graph shows the median rent within a given month.

The data comes from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and is provided through their Tenancy Services website.

Their data is based on all the rental bonds lodged by private landlords within the month.

What is the annual increase in rents in Nelson?

Nelson's annual increase in rents

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This graph shows the annual growth in median rents.

The data also comes from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE).

How many listings are currently available in Nelson?

Nelson and Bay's current listings (Housing stock)

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This graph shows current property listings, with data sourced from realestate.co.nz.

It shows the number of listings that are currently available on the website per month.

You might be wondering: “How do the number of listings impact house prices?”

If many listings are available, then people will think there is lots of supply. This means that people feel like they can take their time choosing a property.

This leads to less competition and softer house prices.

On the other hand, if there aren’t many listings available, people will feel like there is a shortage of houses. This leads to FOMO (fear of missing out).

This makes people more competitive and more likely to bid up house prices.

How many properties are sold per year in Nelson?

Nelson – Number of properties sold per year

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The above graph shows the total number of properties sold over the prior 12 months. For example, if looking at the data for August 2023, the graph will show all the sales between September 2022 – August 2023.

The data comes from the REINZ Market Insights Report and The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) collects data directly from agents.

You might be wondering: “How does the volume of sales impact house prices?”

They don’t impact house prices on their own. But a high number of sales represents a hot property market.

That’s because there are a lot of people out there buying property.

That’s why when sales volumes are high, property prices typically increase at the same time.

When property sales are falling, typically, property prices are also soft.

Nelson City suburb prices

Nelson City

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Nelson City is made up of 20 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Marybank, which has an average house value of $877,300. While the most affordable suburb is Toi Toi, which has an average house value of $538,050.

Over the last 24 months of all the Nelson City suburbs (Mar 2022 - Mar 2024), Beachville had the fastest-growing house prices at -4.59% per year.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Tahunanui, which grew at a rate of -6.49% per year.

Opes Partners
Ed solo

Ed McKnight

Our Resident Economist, with a GradDipEcon and over five years at Opes Partners, is a trusted contributor to NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, Stuff, Business Desk, and OneRoof.

Ed, our Resident Economist, is equipped with a GradDipEcon, a GradCertStratMgmt, BMus, and over five years of experience as Opes Partners' economist. His expertise in economics has led him to contribute articles to reputable publications like NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, OneRoof, Stuff, and Business Desk. You might have also seen him share his insights on television programs such as The Project and Breakfast.

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