Property Market
What's happening with NZ house prices right now?
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Property Market
8 min read
Author: Ed McKnight
Our Resident Economist, with a GradDipEcon and over five years at Opes Partners, is a trusted contributor to NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, Stuff, Business Desk, and OneRoof.
Reviewed by: Laine Moger
Journalist and Property Educator, holds a Bachelor of Communication (Honours) from Massey University.
As Auckland is New Zealand’s largest city, investors often want to know: How is the Auckland market behaving?
If you have any questions or thoughts, please leave them in the comments section below.
As at August 2024, the median house price in Auckland is $960,000. This is up from $621,000 10 years earlier. That means that the median Auckland property increased in value by 4.45% each year, or $33,900 on average.
The most expensive suburb in Auckland is Herne Bay, which has a median house price of $3,378,900 and is located in the Auckland City district. That means that Herne Bay's median house price is 352% of Auckland’s median.
The least expensive suburb in Auckland is Auckland Central, which has a median house price of $528,100 and is located in the Auckland City district. That means that Auckland Central's median house price is 55% of Auckland’s median.
Over the last 24 months (Sep 2022 - Sep 2024), Schnapper Rock had the fastest-growing house prices in all of Auckland, at 0% per year.
The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Glendene, which grew at a rate of -8% per year.
Auckland house prices look relatively cheap compared to where we'd expect them to be.
In the above graph, when the purple line is below the baseline (black line), undervalued's house values are undervalued. This suggests there is a buying opportunity in the region.
When Auckland’s house values are above the baseline, other regions have buying opportunities.
How is this calculated? Click on the accordions below to find out.
There’s no missing it – house prices have fallen around the country and Auckland is no exception.
Currently, Auckland house prices have fallen 22.79% from the peak of the market in Nov 2021 through to Aug 2024.
Auckland house prices soared after the Covid-19 pandemic began. House prices started out 30% below the eventual peak of the market.
However, since that peak in November 2021, house prices have been falling steadily.
Today, Auckland house prices are down 22.79% compared to their peak.
One of the most common questions I get asked is: “Ed, are properties selling above or below the Council Valuation (CV)?”
Some call it the RV (Rateable Value) or GV (Government Value).
Why do people care? Well, if you go on TradeMe (or another website), you’ll almost always see the council’s valuation for the property.
In Aug 2024 it took about 7 weeks to sell a property (51 days). That compares to 49 days for the rest of New Zealand (excluding Auckland).
So it takes about the same time to sell a property in Auckland compared to the rest of the country.
Over the last 30+ years it has taken 37 days to sell a property in Auckland (on average). So it currently takes longer to sell a property in the region compared to normal.
On average, over the last 30+ years about 26,700 properties are sold per year in Auckland.
Over the last year 21,210 properties sold within the region (Aug 2024).
So right now, there are 20.56% fewer properties selling per year compared to average.
Overall, Auckland’s house prices have increased at a faster rate than the rest of New Zealand.
This tells us that Auckland house prices have increased 0.7% faster per year than the rest of the country.
Over time that difference compounds. Today, Auckland house prices are 8.4x their 1992 levels. The rest of New Zealand's house prices are currently only 6.8x their 1992 level.
Our standard assumption at Opes Partners is that Auckland house prices will increase 6% per year over the long term – compared with 5% for the rest of the country.
This is a slower rate than the market has experienced in the past.
Over the last 30+ years (Jan 1992 – Aug 2024) NZ house prices, excluding Auckland, increased 6.0% per year. House prices in Auckland increased 6.7% per year.
So the capital growth rates we use are ‘discounted’ by 0.7% - 1.0% percentage points.
This map lets you find out for yourself.
Each area represents a different suburb, and the colour of the area represents how quickly house prices have increased over the past 20+ years.
The redder the area ... the quicker house prices have grown in that suburb.
Gross yields vary widely depending on which suburb you chose to investigate.
So, which suburbs in the Auckland property market have the highest gross rental yields?
Navigate the map to find the suburbs where houses produce the most cash for their investors.
The map below depicts which districts within the Auckland Region have the most and least affordable house prices (REINZ, August 2024).
The darker the area, the more expensive the median house price for that area.
The Orakei Ward is the most expensive district within the Auckland Region, with properties reaching a median price of $1,650,000 in August 2024.
By comparison, the New Zealand ex-Auckland is the most affordable, with a median house price of just $681,000. That's a $969,000 difference compared to Orakei Ward.
This map shows a breakdown of how over or under-valued each ward is right now in the Auckland property market. These figures are calculated exactly the same way as the HPI based graph in the above section.
Rodney Ward appears to be the most overvalued area in Auckland. House prices there are about 11.41% above where we would usually expect them to be over the long term.
Orakei Ward, on the other hand, appears to be the most undervalued area in Auckland. House prices in this district appear to be 4.43% below where we would expect them to be.
This means that we've got greater confidence that Orakei Ward house prices will increase faster over the next 5-10 years compared to Rodney Ward.
The map below illustrates the projected population growth for each district within the Auckland Region over the next 25 years (2023 - 2048).
The darker the district, the more the population is predicted to expand in that area.
Over this period, Rodney local board area is expected to see the most growth of all the council areas within the region. 71.06% in total.
By contrast, Waitakere Ranges local board area is expected to grow by 2.72% over the same timeframe.
The above graph shows how quickly house prices have increased or decreased over the previous 12 months. This is also known as ‘capital growth’.
So does this show how the property market is going right now?
Yes and no.
It shows how expensive properties are today compared to 12 months ago.
While this will give us a good sense of how property values have changed, it’s not the only thing to consider.
You might also look at how quickly property values are going up (or down) from month to month, the number of property sales and how quickly properties are selling.
The above graph shows the median rent within a given month.
The data comes from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and is provided through their Tenancy Services website.
Their data is based on all the rental bonds lodged by private landlords within the month.
This graph shows the annual growth in median rents.
The data also comes from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE).
This graph shows current property listings, with data sourced from realestate.co.nz.
It shows the number of listings that are currently available on the website per month.
You might be wondering: “How do the number of listings impact house prices?”
If many listings are available, then people will think there is lots of supply. This means that people feel like they can take their time choosing a property.
This leads to less competition and softer house prices.
On the other hand, if there aren’t many listings available, people will feel like there is a shortage of houses. This leads to FOMO (fear of missing out).
This makes people more competitive and more likely to bid up house prices.
The above graph shows the total number of properties sold over the prior 12 months. For example, if looking at the data for August 2023, the graph will show all the sales between September 2022 – August 2023.
The data comes from the REINZ Market Insights Report and The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) collects data directly from agents.
You might be wondering: “How does the volume of sales impact house prices?”
They don’t impact house prices on their own. But a high number of sales represents a hot property market.
That’s because there are a lot of people out there buying property.
That’s why when sales volumes are high, property prices typically increase at the same time.
When property sales are falling, typically, property prices are also soft.
Auckland City is made up of 46 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Herne Bay, which has an average house value of $3,378,900. While the most affordable suburb is Auckland Central, which has an average house value of $528,100.
Over the last 24 months of all the Auckland City suburbs (Sep 2022 - Sep 2024), Point England had the fastest-growing house prices at -2.57% per year.
The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Sandringham, which grew at a rate of -6.56% per year.
North Shore is made up of 40 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Stanley Point, which has an average house value of $2,414,750. While the most affordable suburb is Birkdale, which has an average house value of $930,650.
Over the last 24 months of all the North Shore suburbs (Sep 2022 - Sep 2024), Schnapper Rock had the fastest-growing house prices at 0.10% per year.
The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Takapuna, which grew at a rate of -6.57% per year.
Manukau is made up of 39 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Eastern Beach, which has an average house value of $1,807,700. While the most affordable suburb is Manukau, which has an average house value of $571,450.
Over the last 24 months of all Manukau suburbs (Sep 2022 - Sep 2024), Half Moon Bay had the fastest-growing house prices at -2.31% per year.
The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Wiri, which grew at a rate of -6.86% per year.
Waitakere is made up of 25 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Herald Island, which has an average house value of $1,403,950. While the most affordable suburb is Huia, which has an average house value of $837,350.
Over the last 24 months of all the Waitakere suburbs (Sep 2022 - Sep 2024), Waitakere had the fastest-growing house prices at -5.35% per year.
The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Te Atatu South, which grew at a rate of -8.24% per year.
Papakura-Franklin is made up of 22 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Shamrock Park, which has an average house value of $2,133,700. While the most affordable suburb is Red Hill, which has an average house value of $770,600.
Over the last 24 months of all Papakura-Franklin suburbs (Sep 2022 - Sep 2024), Shamrock Park had the fastest-growing house prices at -2.42% per year.
The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Papakura, which grew at a rate of -6.85% per year.
Rodney is made up of 39 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Sandspit, which has an average house value of $1,931,600. While the most affordable suburb is Wellsford, which has an average house value of $694,600.
Over the last 24 months of all Rodney suburbs (Sep 2022 - Sep 2024), Muriwai had the fastest-growing house prices at -1.99% per year.
The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Omiha, which grew at a rate of -7.64% per year.
If you're considering investing in property, other property markets you might also want to look into are the Wellington property market, Christchurch property market, Hamilton property market and the wider NZ property market.
Write your questions or thoughts in the comments section below.
Our Resident Economist, with a GradDipEcon and over five years at Opes Partners, is a trusted contributor to NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, Stuff, Business Desk, and OneRoof.
Ed, our Resident Economist, is equipped with a GradDipEcon, a GradCertStratMgmt, BMus, and over five years of experience as Opes Partners' economist. His expertise in economics has led him to contribute articles to reputable publications like NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, OneRoof, Stuff, and Business Desk. You might have also seen him share his insights on television programs such as The Project and Breakfast.