So… when should I buy?
This is the ultimate question. But the thing is, none of us can time the market to absolute mechanical precision.
So, don’t look at the above graphs and say: “I’m going to buy exactly in September 2023.”
Because in 3 months, the Reserve Bank will release new house price forecasts, and the trough could well move again.
But here’s what you need to keep in mind if you’re considering an investment:
- The number of properties listed for sale is double what it was last year … and prices are down 10%. This presents the opportunity to negotiate.
- Your negotiation power is at its highest when prices are falling … this is where sellers are most nervous. Once prices stabilise, this will become harder.
- The sellers most willing to drop their prices and meet the market are developers building new builds. These developers must sell properties to keep the lights on. So, they are dropping prices to meet the market.
Homeowners and investors can afford to sit on their hands and wait to sell.
Key message: There is a window within the next 8 – 11 months where you can use this information to get a good deal and prepare for recovery.
Tonight, I’m speaking in front of several developers in Christchurch. And this is the exact data I’ll use to get better deals for the investors working with my team at Opes.
P.S. Here’s a picture of me, Ed and Tony Alexander in the studio this week. Tony is an upcoming guest for 3 of our Property Academy podcasts due to be released from Thursday next week.