“Does this mean the OCR will drop in november?”
Probably not.
We’ll likely see another increase in November (up to 4%). This is the Reserve Bank’s last opportunity to change the rate for the year.
After that, there will be a pause until February 2023, when the Reserve Bank next has an opportunity to change the rate.
This will give the central bank time to ask, “what impact has the OCR had?”
Either 1 of 2 things will happen –
Scenario #1 – Inflation will have started to come down.
Scenario #2 – Inflation will have stayed steady or will have kept going up.
If scenario 1 plays out (as the forecasts expect), the OCR will likely stay steady before it starts coming down.
If scenario 2 happens, The Reserve Bank will likely raise the OCR again.