For example, Dunedin house prices fell 4.7% in the previous quarter (Nov '22 – Feb '23).
More recently (Feb – May '23), house prices in Dunedin fell just 0.5%.
While Dunedin house prices are still falling, they are going down more slowly. Things are getting better.
So Dunedin house prices may bottom out very soon.
Compare that to Tauranga. In the previous quarter, house prices there fell 1.6%. This quarter, they fell by 3.8%.
Tauranga house prices are falling more quickly. So they may take longer to bottom out than other parts of the country.
So if you're trying to time the market in Tauranga, you might hold off for a few months.
But if you're investing in Christchurch, Dunedin or Auckland, you might buy sooner. House price falls are slowing down. The market's momentum is improving.
The positive sign that won't get media attention
One of the most unmistakable signs of a housing market downturn is the number of properties sold per year.
Kiwis bought 100,000 properties in a single year at the market's peak.
Now it's down to 58,000. Yup, we're buying 42% fewer properties compared to 18 months ago.
But look at the trend in the graph.