Some prices are already starting to decrease faster than expected.
August – Rents continue to go up
There are a ton of people moving to NZ right now. Migration added 110,000 people to our population over the last year.
These people need somewhere to live. That puts pressure on the rental market. I’m picking that rents will go up faster than 5%.
September – Debt-to-income ratios (DTIs) come in
I reckon Adrian Orr (The Reserve Bank governor) will bring in Debt-to-income ratios by September.
That will make getting a mortgage for an existing rental property a bit harder.
New Builds won’t have to follow this new rule. Once again, the Reserve Bank is pushing property investors towards New Builds. They want to grow the housing supply.
October – interest rates noticeably fall
By the end of the year, we should see interest rates lower than they are today. It could be a bit sooner.
But by October, you should notice the falls.
Wholesale rates are trending down. That means it’s costing the banks less to lend you money for a mortgage.
So I reckon the 1-year interest rate will be in the low-mid 6’s by the end of next year.
November – Some builders go bankrupt
The property market has been slow over the last year. That hasn’t impacted developers’ bank accounts too much.
They sold lots of houses in 2021 and have been finishing them over the last 2 years.
Developers get paid when they finish houses. So they’ve had money coming in the door even while they haven’t been selling much.
But that impact will come. Once they’ve finished their pipelines, some builders will go bust.
December – Episode 1937 of the Property Academy Podcast comes out
Who knows how many of these predictions will come to pass.
But over the next year, I’ll be here every week, keeping you updated with Private Property – this newsletter.
We’ll also be there every day with the Property Academy Podcast. No matter how you want to learn about property, we’ll be there.