The latest polling from the Taxpayer Union Curia Poll (released this year) shows that Labour is on track to lose the next election.

Some people think they are now sure to lose without their star campaigner.

National will likely follow through and scrap these investor taxes if this happens.

But that’s not the only potential scenario.

Scenario #2 – labour will stay in government

While some say Chris Hipkins is not a strong campaigner (compared to Ardern). That doesn’t mean he’ll lose Labour votes.

Chris Hipkins was the only potential leader where:

• more people said they were likely to vote for Labour compared to
• people who said they were less likely.

25% said they were more likely to vote for Labour if Hipkins became leader. 18% said they were less likely to vote Labour. That’s a net positive 7% swing.

And a 7% swing in any poll would be game-changing.

On top of this, Hipkins could turn things around by dumping unpopular policies. (Unpopular according to data, not according to me).

The most unpopular policies are Three Waters and the TVNZ/RNZ merger.

If Chris Hipkins removes some of these policies, there’s a chance he could turn the polls around.

Will interest deductibility be dumped?

What’s my prediction for the election?

I don’t have one. We’re still 9 months away till the votes get counted.

But the key message is:

1. While some people think National is sure to win … it will be a tougher fight than some expect.
2. You shouldn’t bet that the interest deductibility rules will definitely be repealed

There is the possibility that National gets in, then decides: “Hmmm, we actually need the revenue ... we need those taxes from property investors for a bit longer.”

Interest deductibility isn’t dead yet.

Sign up here 👇