Manawatu-Whanganui Property Market

Is it worth buying a property in Manawatu-Whanganui?

Explore the data and find out what the Palmerston North house prices are.

Last updated 11th January 2021

Ed McKnight

Ed McKnight

Economist, property investor and host of the Property Academy Podcast
Introduction

Looking to Invest or buy a property in Manawatu-Whanganui?

This article breaks down all the most essential facts about the Manawatu-Whanganui property market.

The Manawatu-Whanganui property market is made up of 7 districts and 58 suburbs. These districts are Ruapehu, Whanganui, Horowhenua, Palmerston North City, Manawatu, Rangitikei and Tararua.

Median Manawatu-Whanganui House Price

Manawatu-Whanganui's Median House Price is $626,000

As at September 2021, the median house price in Manawatu-Whanganui is $626,000. This is up from $220,000 10 years earlier. That means that the median Manawatu-Whanganui property increased in value by 11.02% each year, or $40,600 on average.

The most expensive suburb in Manawatu-Whanganui is Fitzherbert, which has a median house price of $963,500 and is located in Palmerston North City district. That means that Fitzherbert's median house price is 1.59x Manawatu-Whanganui's median.

The least expensive suburb in Manawatu-Whanganui is Manunui, which has a median house price of $306,950 and is located in Ruapehu district. That means that Manunui's median house price is 49.40% cheaper than Manawatu-Whanganui's median.

Over the last 21 years (Jan 2000 – Sep 2021), Foxton Beach had the fastest-growing house prices in all of Manawatu-Whanganui, at 10.00% per year. That is 20.91% faster than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Fitzherbert, which grew at a rate of 6.27% per year. That’s 24.17% slower than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price.

Manawatu-Whanganui House Prices Comparison with NZ

Manawatu-Whanganui's Median House Price is 6.67% above its long term average

On average, over the last 28 years, Manawatu-Whanganui's median house price has been 61.51% of New Zealand’s median house price.

Assuming the long term fundamentals of either property market have not changed, Manawatu-Whanganui's median house price should trackback to this long term average.

That suggests that when Manawatu-Whanganui's median house price is below its long term average, there is a buying opportunity. When Manawatu-Whanganui's median house price is above its long term average, there are buying opportunities in other regions.

As of July 2021, Manawatu-Whanganui's median house price was 68.18% of New Zealand’s median house price. That is 6.67% above its long term ratio, which suggests there is likely buying opportunities outside of the Manawatu-Whanganui region.

Council Breakdown – Over/Undervalued

Where are House Prices Most Over and Undervalued within the Manawatu-Whanganui Region?

This map shows a breakdown of how over or under-valued each council area is right now in the Manawatu-Whanganui property market. These figures are calculated exactly the same way as the graph in the above section.

Rangitikei district appears to be the most over-valued. House prices there are about 31.91% above where we would usually expect them to be over the long term.

Palmerston-North district, on the other hand, appears to be less over-valued. House prices in this district appear to be 3.11% above where we would expect them to be.

This means that we've got greater confidence that Palmerston-North would receive a higher rate of capital growth (house price increases) over the next 5-10 years compared to Rangitikei.

Affordability

Where Are the Most Affordable Property In Manawatu-Whanganui?

The map below depicts which districts within the Manawatu-Whanganui Region have the most and least affordable house prices (Core Logic, July 2021).

The darker the district, the more expensive the average house price for that area...

The Palmerston-North district is by far the most expensive district within the Manawatu-Whanganui region, with properties reaching an average price of $684,797 (July 2021).

By comparison, the Ruapehy District is the most affordable, with an average house price of just $370,926. That's an enormous $313,871 difference compared to Palmerston-North.

Population Growth

Which Part of Manawatu-Whanganui Gets The Highest Population Growth?

The map below illustrates the projected population growth for each district within the Waikato Region over the next 25 years (2018 - 2043).

The darker the district, the more the population is predicted to expand in that area...

Over this period, the Palmerston-North district is expected to see the most growth of all the council areas within the region – 14.17% in total.

By contrast, the Ruapehu district is expected to shrink by 28.73% over the same timeframe.

Palmerston North Property Market

Palmerston North Property Market

Palmerston North is made up of 17 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Aokautere, which has a median house price of $963,500. While the most affordable suburb is Westbrook, which has a median house price of $560,000.

Over the last 21 years of all Palmerston North suburbs (Jan 2000 – Sep 2021), Westbrook had the fastest-growing house prices, at 8.27% per year. That is 0.06% faster than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Fitzherbert, which grew at a rate of 6.27% per year. That’s 24.17% slower than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price.

Whanganui Property Market

Whanganui Property Market

Whanganui is made up of 14 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Otamatea, which has a median house price of $840,550. While the most affordable suburb is Castlecliff, which has a median house price of $421,000.

Over the last 21 years of all Whanganui suburbs (Jan 2000 – Sep 2021), Castlecliff had the fastest-growing house prices, at 9.67% per year. That is 17.00% faster than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Saint Johns Hill, which grew at a rate of 7.60% per year. That’s 8.11% slower than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price.

Horowhenua Property Market

Horowhenua Property Market

Horowhenua is made up of 10 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Ohau, which has a median house price of $885,500. While the most affordable suburb is Shannon, which has a median house price of $474,200.

Over the last 24 months of all Horowhenua suburbs (Sep 2019 - Sep 2021), Foxton had the fastest-growing house prices, at 27.53% per year. That is 8.84% faster than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price during this time period.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Ohau, which grew at a rate of 21.63% per year. That’s 14.48% slower than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price.

Rangitikei Property Market

Rangitikei Property Market

Rangitikei District is made up of 4 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Bulls, which has a median house price of $516,100. While the most affordable suburb is Taihape, which has a median house price of $325,700.

Over the last 24 months of all Rangitikei District suburbs (Sep 2019 – Sep 2021), Bulls had the fastest-growing house prices, at 30.97% per year. That is 22.43% faster than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price over that period.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Marton, which grew at a rate of 30.00% per year. That’s 18.60% slower than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price over the same period.

Ruapehu Property Market

Ruapehu Property Market

Ruapehu District is made up of 5 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Ohakune, which has a median house price of $484,450. While the most affordable suburb is Manunui, which has a median house price of $306,950.

Over the last 24 months of all Ruapehu District suburbs (Dec 2018 – Dec 2020), Raetihi had the fastest-growing house prices, at 35.56%. That is 40.59% faster than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price over that period.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was National Park, which grew at a rate of 18.60% per year. That’s 26.45% slower than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price over the same period.

Tararua Property Market

Tararua Property Market

Tararua District is made up of 4 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Pahiatua, which has a median house price of $464,350. While the most affordable suburb is Eketahuna, which has a median house price of $390,050.

Over the last 21 years of all Tararua District suburbs (Jan 2000 – Sep 2021), Pahiatua had the fastest-growing house prices, at 9.23% per year. That is 11.69% faster than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price over that period.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Dannevirke, which grew at a rate of 8.44% per year. That’s 2.13% faster than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price over the same period.

Manawatu Property Market

Manawatu Property Market

Manawatu District is made up of 5 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Fielding, which has a median house price of $649,400. While the most affordable suburb is Himatangi Beach, which has a median house price of $548,350.

Over the last 24 months of all Manawatu District suburbs (Sep 2019 – Sep 2021), Himatangi Beach had the fastest-growing house prices, at 25.28% per year. That is 0.03% slower than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price over that period.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Fielding, which grew at a rate of 22.29% per year. That’s 11.87% slower than the median Manawatu-Whanganui house price over the same period.

Other Property Markets

Other Property Markets to Look Into

If you found this article useful, then you might also like our analyses on the other property markets in New Zealand. You can read all about the Auckland property market, the Wellington property market and the Christchurch property market by clicking any of the links mentioned here.

Ed McKnight

Ed McKnight

Ed McKnight is the host of the Property Academy Podcast – NZ's #1 business podcast. He is an economist, having studied at the University of Auckland and the University of Waikato. He's a frequent writer for Informed Investor Magazine and has contributed to NewsHub, Stuff, OneRoof and Property Investor Magazine.