Property Market

10 min read

How is the Bay of Plenty property market going?

Ed solo

Author: Ed McKnight

Our Resident Economist, with a GradDipEcon and over five years at Opes Partners, is a trusted contributor to NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, Stuff, Business Desk, and OneRoof.

Reviewed by: Laine Moger

Journalist and Property Educator with six years of experience, holds a Bachelor of Communication (Honours) from Massey University.

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Bay of Plenty's median house price is $785,000

Bay of Plenty house prices

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As at January 2024, the median house price in Bay of Plenty is $785,000. This is up from $369,000 10 years earlier. That means that the median Bay of Plenty property increased in value by 7.84% each year, or $41,600 on average.

The most expensive suburb in Bay of Plenty is Mount Maunganui, which has a median house price of $1,317,400 and is located in the Tauranga City district. That means that Mount Maunganui's median house price is 168% of Bay of Plenty’s median.

The least expensive suburb in Bay of Plenty is Murupara, which has a median house price of $188,500 and is located in the Whakatane District district. That means that Murupara's median house price is 24% of Bay of Plenty’s median.

Over the last 24 months (Dec 2021 - Dec 2023), Edgecumbe had the fastest-growing house prices in all of Bay of Plenty, at 4% per year.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Fordlands, which grew at a rate of -9% per year.

NZ Property Market Update: February 2024

Bay of Plenty's house price is 4.99% above its long term average

Is Bay of Plenty over or undervalued?

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Bay of Plenty house prices look relatively expensive compared to where we'd expect them to be.

In the above graph, when the purple line is below the baseline (black line), Bay of Plenty's house values are undervalued. This suggests there is a buying opportunity in the region.

When Bay of Plenty’s house values are above the baseline, other regions have buying opportunities.

How is this calculated? Click on the accordions below to find out.

Where do house prices grow the fastest in the Tauranga property market?

This map lets you find out for yourself.

Each area represents a different suburb, and the colour of the area represents how quickly house prices have increased over the past 20+ years.

The redder the area ... the quicker house prices have grown in that suburb.

Which Tauranga suburbs have the highest yields?

Gross yields vary widely depending on which suburb you chose to investigate.

So, which suburbs in the Tauranga property market have the highest gross rental yields?

Navigate the map to find the suburbs where houses produce the most cash for their investors.

Where are the most affordable properties in Bay of Plenty?

The map below depicts which districts within the Bay of Plenty Region have the most and least affordable house prices (REINZ, January 2024).

The darker the district, the more expensive the median house price for that area.

The Tauranga City is the most expensive district within the Bay of Plenty Region, with properties reaching a median price of $920,000 in January 2024.

By comparison, the Kawerau District is the most affordable, with a median house price of just $315,500. That's a $604,500 difference compared to Tauranga City.

Where are house prices most over and undervalued within the Bay of Plenty region?

This map shows a breakdown of how over or under-valued each council area is right now in the Bay of Plenty property market. These figures are calculated exactly the same way as the HPI based graph in the above section.

Kawerau District appears to be the most overvalued area in Bay of Plenty. House prices there are about 28.21% above where we would usually expect them to be over the long term.

Tauranga City, on the other hand, appears to be the least overvalued in Bay of Plenty. House prices in this district appear to be 3.00% above where we would expect them to be.

This means that we've got greater confidence that Tauranga City house prices will increase faster over the next 5-10 years compared to Kawerau District.

Which part of Bay of Plenty gets the highest population growth?

The map below illustrates the projected population growth for each district within the Bay of Plenty Region over the next 25 years (2023 - 2048).

The darker the district, the more the population is predicted to expand in that area.

Over this period, Tauranga city is expected to see the most growth of all the council areas within the region. 28.58% in total.

By contrast, Kawerau district is expected to shrink by -3.54% over the same timeframe.

How are Bay of Plenty's house prices changing right now?

Bay of Plenty's capital growth rate

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The above graph shows how quickly house prices have increased or decreased over the previous 12 months. This is also known as ‘capital growth’.

So does this show how the property market is going right now?

Yes and no.

It shows how expensive properties are today compared to 12 months ago.

While this will give us a good sense of how property values have changed, it’s not the only thing to consider.

You might also look at how quickly property values are going up (or down) from month to month, the number of property sales and how quickly properties are selling.

What is the median rent in Bay of Plenty?

Bay of Plenty's median rent

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The above graph shows the median rent within a given month.

The data comes from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and is provided through their Tenancy Services website.

Their data is based on all the rental bonds lodged by private landlords within the month.

What is the annual increase in rents in Wellington?

Bay of Plenty's annual increase in rents

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This graph shows the annual growth in median rents.

The data also comes from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE).

How many listings are currently available in Bay of Plenty?

Bay of Plenty's current listings (Housing stock)

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This graph shows current property listings, with data sourced from realestate.co.nz.

It shows the number of listings that are currently available on the website per month.

You might be wondering: “How do the number of listings impact house prices?”

If many listings are available, then people will think there is lots of supply. This means that people feel like they can take their time choosing a property.

This leads to less competition and softer house prices.

On the other hand, if there aren’t many listings available, people will feel like there is a shortage of houses. This leads to FOMO (fear of missing out).

This makes people more competitive and more likely to bid up house prices.

How many properties are sold per year in Bay of Plenty?

Bay of Plenty – Number of properties sold per year

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The above graph shows the total number of properties sold over the prior 12 months. For example, if looking at the data for August 2023, the graph will show all the sales between September 2022 – August 2023.

The data comes from the REINZ Market Insights Report and The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) collects data directly from agents.

You might be wondering: “How does the volume of sales impact house prices?”

They don’t impact house prices on their own. But a high number of sales represents a hot property market.

That’s because there are a lot of people out there buying property.

That’s why when sales volumes are high, property prices typically increase at the same time.

When property sales are falling, typically, property prices are also soft.

Tauranga City suburb prices

Tauranga

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Tauranga City is made up of 20 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Mount Maunganui, which has an average house value of $1,317,400. While the most affordable suburb is Poike, which has an average house value of $632,300.

Over the last 24 months of all the Tauranga City suburbs (Dec 2021 - Dec 2023), Ohauiti had the fastest-growing house prices at -3.55% per year.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Matua, which grew at a rate of -7.85% per year.

Western Bay of Plenty District suburb prices

Western Bay of Plenty

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Western Bay of Plenty District is made up of 10 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Pukehina, which has an average house value of $1,186,850. While the most affordable suburb is Paengaroa, which has an average house value of $717,250.

Over the last 24 months of all the Western Bay of Plenty District suburbs (Dec 2021 - Dec 2023), Aongatete had the fastest-growing house prices at -0.75% per year.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Omokoroa, which grew at a rate of -5.23% per year.

Whakatane District suburb prices

Whakatane

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Whakatane District is made up of 6 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Coastlands, which has an average house value of $977,750. While the most affordable suburb is Murupara, which has an average house value of $188,500.

Over the last 24 months of all the Whakatane District suburbs (Dec 2021 - Dec 2023), Edgecumbe had the fastest-growing house prices at 3.82% per year.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Whakatane, which grew at a rate of -0.09% per year.

Rotorua District suburb prices

Rotorua

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Rotorua District is made up of 29 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Tihiotonga, which has an average house value of $890,900. While the most affordable suburb is Fordlands, which has an average house value of $359,200.

Over the last 24 months of all the Rotorua District suburbs (Dec 2021 - Dec 2023), Tihiotonga had the fastest-growing house prices at -3.46% per year.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Fordlands, which grew at a rate of -9.46% per year.

Opotiki District suburb prices

Opotiki

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Kawerau District suburb prices

Kawerau

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Kawerau District is made up of 1 suburb, also named Kawerau District. It has an average house value of $380,550.

Over the last 24 months, (Dec 2021 - Dec 2023), the average Kawerau house value increased by -2.94% per year.

Opes Partners
Ed solo

Ed McKnight

Our Resident Economist, with a GradDipEcon and over five years at Opes Partners, is a trusted contributor to NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, Stuff, Business Desk, and OneRoof.

Ed, our Resident Economist, is equipped with a GradDipEcon, a GradCertStratMgmt, BMus, and over five years of experience as Opes Partners' economist. His expertise in economics has led him to contribute articles to reputable publications like NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, OneRoof, Stuff, and Business Desk. You might have also seen him share his insights on television programs such as The Project and Breakfast.

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