Bay of Plenty Property Market

Is it worth buying a property in the Bay of Plenty? Explore the data and find out. Last updated 11th January 2021

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Ed McKnight

Economist, property investor and host of the Property Academy Podcast
Introduction

Looking to invest or buy a property in the Bay of Plenty?

This article breaks down all the most essential facts about the Bay of Plenty property market.

The Bay of Plenty property market is made up of 6 districts and 65 suburbs. These districts are Tauranga, Whakatane, Kawerau, Opotiki, Rotorua and Western Bay of Plenty.

Median Bay of Plenty House Price

Bay of Plenty's Median House Price is $900,000

As at October 2021, the median house price in the Bay of Plenty is $900,000. This is up from $345,000 10 years earlier. That means that the median Bay of Plenty property increased in value by 10.06% each year, or $55,500 on average.

The most expensive suburb in the Bay of Plenty is Mount Maunganui, which has a median house price of $1,330,200 and is located in the Tauranga City district. That means that Mount Maunganui's median house price is 1.84x Bay of Plenty's median.

The least expensive suburb in the Bay of Plenty is Fordlands, which has a median house price of $382,350 and is located in Rotorua district. That means that Fordlands' median house price is 47.02% cheaper than the Bay of Plenty's median.

Over the last 21 years (Jan 2000 – Dec 2020), Kawerau had the fastest-growing house prices in all of the Bay of Plenty, at 8.92% per year. That is 25.61% faster than the median Bay of Plenty house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Kawaha Point, which grew at a rate of 6.04% per year. That’s 14.88% slower than the median Bay of Plenty house price.

Bay of Plenty House Prices Comparison with NZ

Bay of Plenty's Median House Price is 4.18% above its long term average

On average, over the last 28 years, Bay of Plenty's median house price has been 97.46% of New Zealand’s median house price.

Assuming the long term fundamentals of either property market have not changed, Bay of Plenty's median house price should trackback to this long term average.

That suggests that when Bay of Plenty's median house price is below its long term average, there is a buying opportunity. When Bay of Plenty's median house price is above its long term average, there are buying opportunities in other regions.

As of October 2021, Bay of Plenty's median house price was 101.64% of New Zealand’s median house price. That is 4.18% above its long term ratio, which suggests that Bay of Plenty house prices are slightly higher than we would usually expect over the long term compared to other regions.

Council Breakdown - Over/Undervalued

Where are House Prices Most Over and Undervalued within the Bay of Plenty Region?

This map shows a breakdown of how over or under-valued each council area is right now in the Bay of Plenty property market. These figures are calculated exactly the same way as the graph in the above section.

Kawerau district appears to be the most over-valued. House prices there are about 31.9% above where we would usually expect them to be over the long term.

Whakatane district, on the other hand, appears to be slightly under-valued. House prices in this district appear to be 4.42% below where we would expect them to be.

This means that we've got greater confidence that Whakatane would receive a higher rate of capital growth (house price increases) over the next 5-10 years compared to Kawerau.

Affordability

Where Are the Most Affordable Property In the Bay of Plenty?

The map below depicts which districts within the Bay of Plenty Region have the most and least affordable house prices (Core Logic, July 2021).

The darker the district, the more expensive the average house price for that area...

The Tauranga district is by far the most expensive district within the Waikato region, with properties reaching an average price of $968,342 (July 2021).

By comparison, the Kawerau District is the most affordable, with an average house price of just $353,574. That's an enormous $614,768 difference compared to Tauranga.

Population Growth

Which Part of the Bay of Plenty Gets the Highest Population Growth?

The map below illustrates the projected population growth for each district within the Bay of Plenty Region over the next 25 years (2018 - 2043).

The darker the district, the more the population is predicted to shrink in that area...

Over this period, Tauranga City is expected to see the most growth of all the council areas within the region - 33.36% in total.

By contrast, the Opotiki district is expected to shrink by 24.2% over the same timeframe.

Tauranga Property Market

Tauranga Property Market

Tauranga City is made up of 20 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Mount Maunganui, which has a median house price of $1,330200. While the most affordable suburb is Parkvale, which has a median house price of $653,400.

Over the last 21 years of all Tauranga City suburbs (Jan 2000 – Sep 2021), Mount Maunganui had the fastest-growing house, at 8.02% per year. That is 12.99% faster than the median Bay of Plenty house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Tauranga, which grew at a rate of 6.58% per year. That’s 7.29% slower than the median Bay of Plenty house price.

Rotorua Property Market

Rotorua Property Market

Rotorua is made up of 27 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Tihiotonga, which has a median house price of $911,500. While the most affordable suburb is Fordlands, which has a median house price of $382,250.

Over the last 21 years of all Rotorua suburbs (Jan 2000 – Sep 2021), Fordlands had the fastest-growing house, at 8.27% per year. That is 16.49% faster than the median Bay of Plenty house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Kawaha Point, which grew at a rate of 6.04% per year. That’s 14.88% slower than the median Bay of Plenty house price.

Whakatane Property Market

Whakatane Property Market

Whakatane is made up of 6 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Ohope, which has a median house price of $881,150. While the most affordable suburb is Edgecumbe, which had a median house price of $511,350 as at September 2021.

Over the last 21 years of all Whakatane suburbs (Jan 2000 – Sep 2021), Edgecumbe had the fastest-growing house, at 7.41% per year. That is 4.31% faster than the median Bay of Plenty house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Whakatane, which grew at a rate of 6.52% per year. That’s 8.20% slower than the median Bay of Plenty house price.

Western Bay of Plenty Property Market

Western Bay of Plenty Property Market

Western Bay of Plenty is made up of 10 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Waihi Beach, which has a median house price of $1,225,800. While the most affordable suburb is Paengaroa, which has a median house price of $669,150 (September 2021).

Over the last 24 months of all West Bay of Plenty suburbs (Sep 2019 – Sep 2021), Waihi Beach had the fastest-growing house, at 17.10% per year. That is 0.7% slower than the median Bay of Plenty house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Aongatete, which grew at a rate of 10.45% per year. That’s 38.48% slower than the median Bay of Plenty house price.

Opotiki Property Market

Opotiki Property Market

The Opotiki district is made up of 1 suburb, also named Opotiki, which has a median house price of $417,150.

Over the last 21 years (Jan 2000 - Sep 2021) the median Opotiki house value grew by 6.78%, which is 4.54% slower than the median Bay of Plenty house price over the same period.

Kawerau Property Market

Kawerau Property Market

The Kawerau district is made up of 1 suburb, also named Kawerau, which has a median house price of $385,950.

Over the last 21 years (Jan 2000 - Sep 2021) the median Kawerau house value grew by 8.92%, which is 25.61% faster than the median Bay of Plenty house price over the same period.

Other Property Markets

Other Property Markets to Look Into

If you found this article useful, then you might also like our analyses on the other property markets in New Zealand. You can read all about the Auckland property market, the Wellington property market and the Christchurch property market by clicking any of the links mentioned here.

1601614029185

Ed McKnight

Ed McKnight is the host of the Property Academy Podcast – NZ's #1 business podcast. He is an economist, having studied at the University of Auckland and the University of Waikato. He's a frequent writer for Informed Investor Magazine and has contributed to NewsHub, Stuff, OneRoof and Property Investor Magazine.