House price predictions - Where are house prices going?

Property investors and homeowners always want to know: “Where are house prices going? What are the banks’ house price predictions?”

No one knows with certainty where house prices will go. But getting a range of opinions can give us a sense of what might happen.

That’s why we look at all the big banks' forecasts here at Opes Partners and pull them together in one place. That way, you can get a sense of what may happen to house prices.

The median prediction is that house prices will increase by 6.38% in the year to December 2025. But all the banks have different ideas.

This table shows each bank’s prediction between December 2024 and December 2025.

Let’s dig into the details of each bank’s prediction.

Reserve Bank house price predictions

The Reserve Bank puts out its house price forecasts every 3 months. This happens when they release their Monetary Policy Statement.

Here is the latest forecast they released in August 2024.

The Reserve Bank predicts that house prices will go up 4.79% in the year to December 2025.

ANZ predicts that house prices will go up 4.50% in the year to December 2025.

ASB house price predictions

ASB releases new house price predictions every quarter. These are part of their Quarterly Economic Forecasts. Though in truth, sometimes they come out once every 4 months.

They published their latest forecast in August 2024. This showed that they think house prices will increase by 10.90% in the year to December 2025.

They don’t release their spreadsheets like the Reserve Bank, ANZ and Westpac do. But they do release a range of predictions, like this:

BNZ house price predictions

Like ASB, BNZ doesn’t release a spreadsheet with their forecasts. But they do regularly update their predictions in their weekly Markets Outlook report.

The latest forecast I’ve seen came out in October 20204. At that point, they thought house prices would go up by 6.50% in the year to December 2025.

Here’s an example of one of their Markets Outlook reports.

Westpac house price predictions

Westpac is one of the only banks that releases all their forecasts in a spreadsheet. This means we can see more closely where they think house prices will go.

Westpac released its most recent forecast in October 2024. At that point, Westpac thought that house prices would go up by 6.38% in the 12 months to December 2025.

Is it a good time for me to invest?

The median forecaster says house prices will increase by 6.38% in the year to December 2025.

So what would happen if you bought an $800k property in Auckland and it went up in value by 6.38% next year?

By the end of the year, it might be worth $851,022. You made $51,022.

Based on the bank's forecasts, here’s what the returns would look like.