House price predictions - Where are house prices going?

Property investors and homeowners always want to know: “Where are house prices going? What are the banks’ house price predictions?”

No one knows with certainty where house prices will go. But getting a range of opinions can give us a sense of what might happen.

That’s why we look at all the big banks' forecasts here at Opes Partners and pull them together in one place. That way, you can get a sense of what may happen to house prices.

The median prediction is that house prices will increase by 4.00% in the year to December 2024. But all the banks have different ideas.

This table shows each bank’s prediction between December 2023 and December 2024.

Let’s dig into the details of each bank’s prediction.

Reserve Bank house price predictions

The Reserve Bank puts out its house price forecasts every 3 months. This happens when they release their Monetary Policy Statement.

Here is the latest forecast they released in February 2024.

The Reserve Bank predicts that house prices will go up 3.41% in the year to December 2024.

ANZ predicts that house prices will go up 3.00% in the year to December 2024.

ASB house price predictions

ASB releases new house price predictions every quarter. These are part of their Quarterly Economic Forecasts. Though in truth, sometimes they come out once every 4 months.

They published their latest forecast in December 2023. This showed that they think house prices will increase by 7.30% in the year to December 2024.

They don’t release their spreadsheets like the Reserve Bank, ANZ and Westpac do. But they do release a range of predictions, like this:

BNZ house price predictions

Like ASB, BNZ doesn’t release a spreadsheet with their forecasts. But they do regularly update their predictions in their weekly Markets Outlook report.

The latest forecast I’ve seen came out in March 2024. At that point, they thought house prices would go up by 4.80% in the year to December 2024.

Here’s an example of one of their Markets Outlook reports.

Kiwibank house price predictions

Kiwibank is sporadic in how often they release new predictions. In 2023, they released a forecast in July 2023.

Then, I didn’t see another one until December 2023, 5 months later.

Kiwibank released its most recent forecast in December 2023. At that time, they thought house prices would go up 4.00% in the year to December 2023.

They don’t release spreadsheets with their economic forecasts. Instead, they publish their projections on their inner.kiwi blog.

Here’s an example of what their forecasts look like.

Westpac house price predictions

Westpac is one of the only banks that releases all their forecasts in a spreadsheet. This means we can see more closely where they think house prices will go.

Westpac released its most recent forecast in March 2024. At that point, Westpac thought that house prices would go up by 5.86% in the 12 months to December 2024.

Treasury house price predictions

Treasury releases new forecasts less frequently than the other financial institutions. These come as part of their Economic and Fiscal Updates.

These happen at least every 6 months. Though sometimes they update the forecasts more frequently.

Treasury released its latest forecast in December 2023. This showed that in the year to December December 2024, they think house prices will go up 2.00%.

Is it a good time for me to invest?

The median forecaster says house prices will increase by 4.00% in the year to December 2024.

So what would happen if you bought an $800k property in Auckland and it went up in value by 4.00% next year?

By the end of the year, it might be worth $832,000. You made $32,000.

Based on the bank's forecasts, here’s what the returns would look like.