What does the graph show?

This graph shows the region’s property price compared to where we’d ‘expect’ it to be. When the line is below 0%, e.g., -5%, then property prices in the region are ‘undervalued’. Property prices are less expensive than what we might expect them to be. This means it could be a good time to buy. When the line is above 0%, e.g. 7%, then property prices in the region are ‘overvalued’. Property prices are more expensive than what we might expect them to be. This means there might be better property options in other regions.

How do I use the graph?

This graph is often used to get a sense of whether property prices look “cheap” or “expensive” within a region. When the area is overvalued, it looks a bit more expensive than we’d expect it to be. When the area is undervalued, it looks a bit cheaper than we’d expect it to be. You can then use this information to understand which areas might achieve faster capital growth over the medium term. For instance, an under-valued region (where the property market is relatively cold) might go up in value quickly over the next 5 years. Whereas an over-valued region (where the property market is hot) might go up in value more slowly over those 5 years. It’s not a perfect model and won’t tell you where property prices will go tomorrow. But it can give you a sense of where the opportunities might be. Assuming nothing has structurally changed within the property market.

What makes the line go up and down?

The line goes up and down based on how quickly house prices are increasing compared to the rest of the country. When the line goes up, property prices in the region are increasing faster than the whole of New Zealand. When the line goes down, property prices in the region are increasing more slowly (or going down faster) than the rest of the country. If the line is flat, then property prices in the region are increasing (or decreasing) at the same rate as the rest of the country.

What does undervalued mean?

An area is undervalued if property prices in the region are lower than what we’d expect them to be. Let’s say Auckland property prices are usually 1.5x New Zealand property prices. Now, let’s say Auckland property prices are actually 1.2x New Zealand property prices (in a specific month). In that case, Auckland property prices are undervalued by 20% at that point in time. If this was the case, it suggests that there may be a buying opportunity within the region. At least compared to the rest of the country.

What does overvalued mean?

An area is overvalued if property prices in the region are higher than what we’d expect them to be. For instance, let’s say Auckland property prices are usually 1.5x New Zealand property prices. Now, let’s say Auckland property prices are actually 1.8x New Zealand property prices (in a specific month). In that case, Auckland property prices are overvalued by 20% at that point in time. If this was the case, it suggests a buying opportunity may exist in other regions outside of Auckland.

Where does the data come from?

The calculations are based on the REINZ House Price Index. This is the most reliable data source about how house prices change from month to month. The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) collects data directly from agents.

How is the data calculated?

For proper data nerds, knowing how the data is calculated can be helpful. Each region's property prices are compared to New Zealand's property prices. For example, in May 2020, Invercargill’s property prices might be 60% of New Zealand’s (for the specific month). This is completed hundreds of times with all the data available.We then average those ratios to calculate an average. This lets us know, “on average, how expensive is each region compared to the rest of New Zealand?” For example, over the long term, Invercargill’s property prices might be 50% of New Zealand’s. We then look at where each region is on a specific month compared to that average. Let’s continue with the example of Invercargill. Under this scenario, property prices in the city are “usually” 50% of New Zealand’s prices. But on May 2020, Invercargill house prices were 60% of New Zealand’s prices (in this example only). That means that in May 2020, Invercargill house prices were 20% overvalued.

Can I download the data?

No. This data is an essential part of Opes Partners’ intellectual property. Although we are happy to make this available publicly (for free), we don’t allow people to download the data directly.

Can I reference the data in my article or research project?

Yes, you can reference the data if you are writing a report, article, or research project. The only requirement is that you mention that the data has been sourced from Opes Partners. That way, if people want to check the updated data, they know where to find it.

Property Market

7 min read25 Oct 2024

How is the Otago property market going?

Everything you need to know about the Otago Property Market before you buy or invest in the Otago region. Find the average house price in Dunedin

Author: Ed McKnight

Resident Economist, with a GradDipEcon and over five years at Opes Partners, is a trusted contributor to NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, Stuff, Business Desk, and OneRoof.

Reviewed by: Laine Moger

Journalist and Property Educator, holds a Bachelor of Communication (Honours) from Massey University.

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Otago's median house price is $659,000

Otago house prices

As at May 2025, the median house price in Otago is $659,000. This is up from $300,000 10 years earlier. That means that the median Otago property increased in value by 8.19% each year, or $35,900 on average.

The most expensive suburb in Otago is Kelvin Heights, which has a median house price of $2,596,350 and is located in the Queenstown-Lakes District district. That means that Kelvin Heights's median house price is 394% of Otago’s median.

The least expensive suburb in Otago is Kaitangata, which has a median house price of $312,850 and is located in the Clutha District district. That means that Kaitangata's median house price is 47% of Otago’s median.

Over the last 24 months (Jun 2023 - Jun 2025), Sunshine Bay had the fastest-growing house prices in all of Otago, at 9% per year.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Kurow, which grew at a rate of -3% per year.

Will the NZ housing market get better in 2025?

Otago's house price is 18.15% above its long term average

Is Otago over or undervalued?

Otago house prices look relatively expensive compared to where we'd expect them to be.

In the above graph, when the purple line is below the baseline (black line), Otago's house values are undervalued. This suggests there is a buying opportunity in the region.

When Otago’s house values are above the baseline, other regions have buying opportunities.

How is this calculated? Click on the accordions below to find out.

Where do house prices grow the fastest in the Dunedin property market?

This map lets you find out for yourself.

Each area represents a different suburb, and the colour of the area represents how quickly house prices have increased over the past 20+ years.

The redder the area ... the quicker house prices have grown in that suburb.

Which Dunedin suburbs have the highest yields?

Gross yields vary widely depending on which suburb you chose to investigate.

So, which suburbs in the Dunedin property market have the highest gross rental yields?

Navigate the map to find the suburbs where houses produce the most cash for their investors.

Are properties selling above or below CV?

One of the most common questions I get asked is: “Ed, are properties selling above or below the Council Valuation (CV)?”

Some call it the RV (Rateable Value) or GV (Government Value).

Why do people care? Well, if you go on TradeMe (or another website), you’ll almost always see the council’s valuation for the property.

Where are the most affordable properties in Otago?

The map below depicts which districts within the Otago Region have the most and least affordable house prices (REINZ, May 2025).

The darker the district, the more expensive the median house price for that area.

The Queenstown-Lakes District is the most expensive district within the Otago Region, with properties reaching a median price of $1,390,000 in May 2025.

By comparison, the Clutha District is the most affordable, with a median house price of just $371,041. That's a $1,018,959 difference compared to Queenstown-Lakes District.

Where are house prices most over and undervalued within the Otago region?

This map shows a breakdown of how over or under-valued each council area is right now in the Otago property market. These figures are calculated exactly the same way as the HPI based graph in the above section.

Queenstown-Lakes District appears to be the most overvalued area in Otago. House prices there are about 34.53% above where we would usually expect them to be over the long term.

Dunedin City, on the other hand, appears to be the least overvalued in Otago. House prices in this district appear to be 6.35% above where we would expect them to be.

This means that we've got greater confidence that Dunedin City house prices will increase faster over the next 5-10 years compared to Queenstown-Lakes District.

Which part of Otago gets the highest population growth?

The map below illustrates the projected population growth for each district within the Otago Region over the next 25 years (2023 - 2048).

The darker the district, the more the population is predicted to expand in that area.

Over this period, Queenstown-Lakes district is expected to see the most growth of all the council areas within the region. 37.70% in total.

By contrast, Clutha district is expected to grow by 0.80% over the same timeframe.

How are Otago's house prices changing right now?

Otago's capital growth rate

The above graph shows how quickly house prices have increased or decreased over the previous 12 months. This is also known as ‘capital growth’.

So does this show how the property market is going right now?

Yes and no.

It shows how expensive properties are today compared to 12 months ago.

While this will give us a good sense of how property values have changed, it’s not the only thing to consider.

You might also look at how quickly property values are going up (or down) from month to month, the number of property sales and how quickly properties are selling.

What is the median rent in Otago?

Otago's median rent

The above graph shows the median rent within a given month.

The data comes from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and is provided through their Tenancy Services website.

Their data is based on all the rental bonds lodged by private landlords within the month.

What is the annual increase in rents in Otago?

Otago's annual increase in rents

This graph shows the annual growth in median rents.

The data also comes from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE).

How many listings are currently available in Otago?

Otago's current listings (Housing stock)

This graph shows current property listings, with data sourced from realestate.co.nz.

It shows the number of listings that are currently available on the website per month.

You might be wondering: “How do the number of listings impact house prices?”

If many listings are available, then people will think there is lots of supply. This means that people feel like they can take their time choosing a property.

This leads to less competition and softer house prices.

On the other hand, if there aren’t many listings available, people will feel like there is a shortage of houses. This leads to FOMO (fear of missing out).

This makes people more competitive and more likely to bid up house prices.

How many properties are sold per year in Otago?

Otago – Number of properties sold per year

The above graph shows the total number of properties sold over the prior 12 months. For example, if looking at the data for August 2023, the graph will show all the sales between September 2022 – August 2023.

The data comes from the REINZ Market Insights Report and The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) collects data directly from agents.

You might be wondering: “How does the volume of sales impact house prices?”

They don’t impact house prices on their own. But a high number of sales represents a hot property market.

That’s because there are a lot of people out there buying property.

That’s why when sales volumes are high, property prices typically increase at the same time.

When property sales are falling, typically, property prices are also soft.

Dunedin City suburb prices

Dunedin

Dunedin City is made up of 65 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Maori Hill, which has an average house value of $996,000. While the most affordable suburb is South Dunedin, which has an average house value of $407,200.

Over the last 24 months of all the Dunedin City suburbs (Jun 2023 - Jun 2025), Liberton had the fastest-growing house prices at 4.14% per year.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Forbury, which grew at a rate of -0.99% per year.

Queenstown-Lakes District suburb prices

Queenstown-Lakes

Queenstown-Lakes District is made up of 16 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Kelvin Heights, which has an average house value of $2,596,350. While the most affordable suburb is Sunshine Bay, which has an average house value of $1,129,450.

Over the last 24 months of all the Queenstown-Lakes District suburbs (Jun 2023 - Jun 2025), Sunshine Bay had the fastest-growing house prices at 8.64% per year.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Arthurs Point, which grew at a rate of -0.18% per year.

Central Otago District suburb prices

Central Otago

Central Otago District is made up of 9 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Mount Pisa, which has an average house value of $1,421,050. While the most affordable suburb is Ranfurly, which has an average house value of $438,700.

Over the last 24 months of all the Central Otago District suburbs (Jun 2023 - Jun 2025), Mount Pisa had the fastest-growing house prices at 5.78% per year.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Naseby, which grew at a rate of 1.42% per year.

Clutha District suburb prices

Clutha

Clutha District is made up of 8 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Lawrence, which has an average house value of $438,800. While the most affordable suburb is Kaitangata, which has an average house value of $312,850.

Over the last 24 months of all the Clutha District suburbs (Jun 2023 - Jun 2025), Lawrence had the fastest-growing house prices at 7.47% per year.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Milton, which grew at a rate of -0.26% per year.

Waitaki District suburb prices

Waitaki

Waitaki District is made up of 11 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Kakanui, which has an average house value of $607,750. While the most affordable suburb is Palmerston, which has an average house value of $409,950.

Over the last 24 months of all the Waitaki District suburbs (Jun 2023 - Jun 2025), Weston had the fastest-growing house prices at 2.66% per year.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Kurow, which grew at a rate of -3.30% per year.

Other property markets to look into

If you found this article useful, then you might also like our analyses on the other property markets in New Zealand. You can read all about the Auckland property market, the Wellington property market and the Christchurch property market by clicking any of the links mentioned here.

Write your questions or thoughts in the comments section below.

Ed McKnight

Resident Economist, with a GradDipEcon and over five years at Opes Partners, is a trusted contributor to NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, Stuff, Business Desk, and OneRoof.

Ed, our Resident Economist, is equipped with a GradDipEcon, a GradCertStratMgmt, BMus, and over five years of experience as Opes Partners' economist. His expertise in economics has led him to contribute articles to reputable publications like NZ Property Investor, Informed Investor, OneRoof, Stuff, and Business Desk. You might have also seen him share his insights on television programs such as The Project and Breakfast.

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Write your questions or thoughts in the comments section below.

How is the Otago property market going?

Otago's median house price is $659,000

Otago house prices

Otago's house price is 18.15% above its long term average

Is Otago over or undervalued?

More from Opes Partners:

Where do house prices grow the fastest in the Dunedin property market?

Which Dunedin suburbs have the highest yields?

Are properties selling above or below CV?

Where are the most affordable properties in Otago?

Where are house prices most over and undervalued within the Otago region?

Which part of Otago gets the highest population growth?

How are Otago's house prices changing right now?

Otago's capital growth rate

What is the median rent in Otago?

Otago's median rent

What is the annual increase in rents in Otago?

Otago's annual increase in rents

How many listings are currently available in Otago?

Otago's current listings (Housing stock)

How many properties are sold per year in Otago?

Otago – Number of properties sold per year

Dunedin City suburb prices

Dunedin

Queenstown-Lakes District suburb prices

Queenstown-Lakes

Central Otago District suburb prices

Central Otago

Clutha District suburb prices

Clutha

Waitaki District suburb prices

Waitaki

Other property markets to look into

What's happening with NZ house prices right now?

Auckland house prices | How is the Auckland property market going?

How is the Wellington property market going?

Southland house prices | How is the Southland property market going?

Best places to invest in NZ for under $500k

How is the Manawatu-Whanganui property market going?

What's happening in the Nelson property market right now?

How is Hawke's Bay property market going?

What's happening with NZ house prices right now?

Auckland house prices | How is the Auckland property market going?

How is the Wellington property market going?

Southland house prices | How is the Southland property market going?

Best places to invest in NZ for under $500k

How is the Manawatu-Whanganui property market going?

What's happening in the Nelson property market right now?

How is Hawke's Bay property market going?

Otago's median house price is $659,000

Otago house prices

Otago's house price is 18.15% above its long term average

Is Otago over or undervalued?

More from Opes Partners:

Where do house prices grow the fastest in the Dunedin property market?

Which Dunedin suburbs have the highest yields?

Are properties selling above or below CV?

Where are the most affordable properties in Otago?

Where are house prices most over and undervalued within the Otago region?

Which part of Otago gets the highest population growth?

How are Otago's house prices changing right now?

Otago's capital growth rate

What is the median rent in Otago?

Otago's median rent

What is the annual increase in rents in Otago?

Otago's annual increase in rents

How many listings are currently available in Otago?

Otago's current listings (Housing stock)

How many properties are sold per year in Otago?

Otago – Number of properties sold per year

Dunedin City suburb prices

Dunedin

Queenstown-Lakes District suburb prices

Queenstown-Lakes

Central Otago District suburb prices

Central Otago

Clutha District suburb prices

Clutha

Waitaki District suburb prices

Waitaki