March: We’ll know if the recovery is real
House prices tend to bounce up in spring and summer. And in February, they bounce back after the quiet Christmas period.
The real test will be in March and April.
If house prices keep rising after the seasonal sugar high has worn off … then we’ll know the recovery is really here.
Banks are still forecasting that house prices will go up 4–5% through 2026.
(But they were saying that last year too… so let’s see).
April: Developers start advertising to investors (even harder)
As investors show more interest, developers will follow … usually with more gimmicky ads.
We’ve all seen them on Facebook boasting “high yields” (which are usually based on misleading rental guarantees).
And once you click one, you suddenly see all of them.
So, April is the time for investors to slow down and run their own numbers. That way, you can see if a gimmick is worth the hype.
May: Banks will keep competing for your mortgage
Even if interest rates go up slightly, banks will still compete hard for your mortgage.
At the end of 2025, all big banks offered up to 1.5% cashbacks to entice you to use them.
So if you had a $500k mortgage, they might pay you $7,500 to use them (with some Terms and Conditions). That’s huge.
I’m expecting to see some other incentives as they elbow each other to maintain and increase their market share.
