Canterbury Property Market

Is it worth buying a property in Canterbury? Explore the data and find out. Last updated 6th September 2021

Ed McKnight

Ed McKnight

Economist, property investor and host of the Property Academy Podcast
Introduction

Looking to Invest or buy a property in Canterbury?

This article breaks down all the most essential facts about the Canterbury property market.

The Canterbury property market is made up of 9 districts and 134 suburbs. These districts are the Christchurch City, Kaikoura, Hurunui, Waimakariri, Selwyn, MacKenzie, Ashburton, Timaru and Waimate.

Median Canterbury House Price

Canterbury's Median House Price is $668,000

As at October 2021, the median house price in Canterbury is $668,000. This is up from $335,000 10 years earlier. That means that the median Canterbury property increased in value by 7.15% each year.

The most expensive suburb in Canterbury is Fendalton, which has a median house price of $1,358,050 and is located in the Christchurch City district. That means that Fendalton's median house price is 1.44x Canterbury’s median.

The least expensive suburb in Canterbury is Hampstead, which has a median house price of $349,600 and is located in the Ashburton district. That means that Hampstead's median house price is 37.11% cheaper than Canterbury’s median.

Over the last 21 years (Jan 2000 – June 2021), Kensington had the fastest-growing house prices in all of Canterbury, at 7.98% per year. That is 35.71% faster than the median Canterbury house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Westmorland, which grew at a rate of 4.73% per year. That’s 19.58% slower than the median Canterbury house price.

Canterbury House Prices Comparison with NZ

Canterbury's Median House Price is 15.86% below its long term average

On average, over the last 29 years, Canterbury’s median house price has been 87.26% of New Zealand’s median house price.

Assuming the long term fundamentals of either property market have not changed, Canterbury’s median house price should track back to this long term average.

That suggests that when Canterbury’s median house price is below its long term average, there is a buying opportunity. When Canterbury’s median house price is above its long term average, there are buying opportunities in other regions.

As of July 2021, Canterbury’s median house price for the previous 12 months was 71.04% of New Zealand’s median house price. That is 16.22% below its long term ratio, which suggests there is a buying opportunity in Canterbury.

Council Breakdown – Over/Undervalued

Where are House Prices Most Over and Undervalued within the Canterbury Region?

This map shows a breakdown of how over or under-valued each council area is right now in the Canterbury property market. These figures are calculated exactly the same way as the graph in the above section.

Mackenzie District appears to be the most-overvalued. House prices there are about 25.28% above where we would usually expect them to be over the long term.

Christchurch City on the other hand, appears to be quite under-valued. House prices in this city appear to be 24.21% below where we would expect them to be.

This means that we've got greater confidence that Christchurch would receive a higher rate of capital growth (house price increases) over the next 5-10 years compared to Mackenzie.

Affordability

Where Are the Most Affordable Property In Canterbury?

The map below depicts which districts within the Canterbury Region have the most and least affordable house prices (Core Logic, July 2021).

The darker the district, the more expensive the average house price for that area...

The Selwyn district is by far the most expensive district within the Canterbury region, with properties reaching an average price of $668,384 (July 2021).

By comparison, the Waimate District is the most affordable, with an average house price of just $350,230. That's an enormous $318,154 difference compared to Selwyn.

Population Growth

Which Part of Canterbury Gets The Highest Population Growth?

The map below illustrates the projected population growth for each district within the Canterbury Region over the next 25 years (2018 - 2043).

The darker the district, the more the population is predicted to expand in that area...

Over this period, the Selwyn district is expected to see the most growth of all the council areas within the region – 60.74% in total.

By contrast, the Kaikoura district is expected to shrink by 4.36% over the same timeframe.

Christchurch Suburb Prices

Christchurch Suburb Prices

The Christchurch property market is made up of 85 suburbs. The most expensive suburb as of June 2021 is Fendalton, which has a median house price of $1,472,800. While the most affordable suburb is Phillipstown, which has a median house price of $379,450.

Over the last 21 years of all Christchurch City suburbs (Jan 2000 – Sep 2021), Strowan had the fastest-growing house, at 6.86% per year. That is 13.30% faster than the median Canterbury house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Westmorland, which grew at a rate of 4.90% per year. That’s 19.11% slower than the median Canterbury house price.

Ashburton Property Market

Ashburton Property Market

The Ashburton district is made up of 8 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Elgin, which has a median house price of $616,400. While the most affordable suburb is Hampstead, which has a median house price of $363,250.

Over the last 21 years of all Ashburton district suburbs (Jan 2000 – Sep 2021), Hampstead had the fastest-growing house, at 6.28% per year. That is 3.67% faster than the median Canterbury house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Allentown, which grew at a rate of 5.78% per year. That’s 4.65% slower than the median Canterbury house price.

Hurunui Property Market

Hurunui Property Market

The Hurunui district is made up of 3 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Hanmer Springs, which has a median house price of $641,000. While the most affordable suburb is Leithfield, which has a median house price of $485,900.

Over the last 24 months of all Hurunui district suburbs (Sep 2019 – Sep 2021), Amberley had the fastest-growing house, at 12.12% per year. That is 1.37% slower than the median Canterbury house price over the same period.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Hanmer Springs, which grew at a rate of 11.50% per year. That’s 6.44% slower than the median Canterbury house price.

Kaikoura Property Market

Kaikoura Property Market

The Kaikoura district is made up of 1 suburb, also named Kaikoura, which has a median house price of $555,300.

Over the last 24 months (Sep 2019 - Sep 2021) the median Kaikoura house value grew by 8.92%, which is 27.44% slower than the median Canterbury house price over the same period.

Waimakariri Property Market

Waimakariri Property Market

The Waimakariri district is made up of 8 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Pegasus, which has a median house price of $678,200. While the most affordable suburb is The Pines Beach, which has a median house price of $465,600.

Over the last 24 months of all Waimakariri district suburbs (Sep 2019 – Sep 2021), Waikuku Beach had the fastest-growing house, at 15.49% per year. That is 26.08% faster than the median Canterbury house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Kaiapoi, which grew at a rate of 11.77% per year. That’s 4.20% slower than the median Canterbury house price.

MacKenzie Property Market

MacKenzie Property Market

The MacKenzie district is made up of 2 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Twizel, which has a median house price of $569,850.

Over the last 24 months (Sep 2018 – Sep 2021), Twizel grew at 7.12% per year. That is 42.05% slower than the median Canterbury house price of this same period.

Selwyn Property Market

Selwyn Property Market

The Selwyn district is made up of 11 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is West Melton, which has a median house price of $984,450. While the most affordable suburb is Southbridge, which as of September 2021 has a median house price of $448,650.

Over the last 24 months of all Selwyn district suburbs (Sep 2019 – Sep 2021), Tai Tapu had the fastest-growing house, at 11.42% per year. That is 7.08% slower than the median Canterbury house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Rolleston, which grew at a rate of 8.27% per year. That’s 32.68% slower than the median Canterbury house price.

Timaru Property Market

Timaru Property Market

The Timaru district is made up of 15 suburbs. The most expensive suburb is Gleniti, which has a median house price of $636,100. While the most affordable suburb is Kensington, which has a median house price of $380,550.

Over the last 21 years of all Timaru district suburbs (Jan 2000 – Sep 2021), Kensington had the fastest-growing house, at 8.17% per year. That is 34.97% faster than the median Canterbury house price.

The suburb that grew the slowest over that period was Geraldine, which grew at a rate of 6.72% per year. That is 10.99% faster than the median Canterbury house price.

Waimate Property Market

Waimate Property Market

The Waimate district is made up of 1 suburb, also named Waimate, which has a median house price of $375,350.

Over the last 24 months (Sep 2019 – Sep 2021), Waimate house prices grew by 17.87%. That is 45.44% faster than the median Canterbury house price over this period.

Other Property Markets to Look Into

Other Property Markets to Look Into

If you found this article useful, then you might also like our analyses on the other property markets in New Zealand. You can read all about the Auckland property market, the Wellington property market and the Christchurch property market by clicking any of the links mentioned here.

Ed McKnight

Ed McKnight

Ed McKnight is the host of the Property Academy Podcast – NZ's #1 business podcast. He is an economist, having studied at the University of Auckland and the University of Waikato. He's a frequent writer for Informed Investor Magazine and has contributed to NewsHub, Stuff, OneRoof and Property Investor Magazine.