That's good news for us. We can stick around with our families for longer … but it also means the government needs to pay NZ Super for longer.

That means each retiree is more and more expensive to pay for.

Problem #2: There are fewer workers to support retirees

In the late 1950s, New Zealand was in the middle of a baby boom. At the time, women were having around four children on average.

But today, New Zealand women are having around 1.5 children (Statistically speaking. You can’t literally have half a child).

The Retirement Commission expects around 50% more people aged 65 and over by 2050. 

That means more people receiving NZ Super, while working-age New Zealanders make up a smaller share of the population.

In the 1960s there were 7 workers per retiree in New Zealand. Today, there are 4 workers per retiree. By 1965 there are projected to be just 2 workers per retiree. That’s according to the Treasury.

That makes NZ Super increasingly difficult to afford in its current form.

Argument #2: NZ Super will survive, but may be tweaked

On the flip side, there are strong reasons to believe NZ Super won't disappear entirely.

Reason #1: Major changes are politically difficult

Older New Zealanders make up a large share of voters.

At the 2023 election, people aged 65 and over accounted for about a quarter of those who voted. 

Those aged 45–64 (who are most invested in NZ Super being maintained) made up another third.

Together, New Zealanders aged 45 and over accounted for around 60% of voters.

That’s partly because older New Zealanders are more likely to vote.

At the 2023 election, around 85% of enrolled voters aged 65+ cast a vote.

That doesn't mean everyone wants NZ Super to stay exactly as it is. But it does mean politicians need to tread carefully.

We've seen proposals to increase the eligibility age to 67 before. Some under Labour and some under National governments. Yet the age remains 65 today.

So, major changes aren't impossible. But history shows they're difficult.

Reason #2: The Retirement Commission is cautious about change

The Retirement Commission advises the government on retirement policy.

In 2016, it recommended gradually raising the eligibility age to 67.

By 2019, it had changed its mind and recommended keeping it at 65. It repeated that recommendation in 2022.

In its 2025 review, the Commission called for a long-term retirement plan before making major decisions. That's because changes don't affect everyone equally. 

Some retirees have investment properties and savings. Others rely heavily on NZ Super to pay their bills. So, while changes may be needed, the Commission argues they must be carefully considered.

Reason #3: Changes are already happening

The government has already started changing who qualifies for NZ Super. 

They’re requiring new migrants to live in New Zealand for longer to qualify for the NZ Super.

Since July 1 2024, the number of years you need to have lived in NZ to get Super has gone up from 10 to 20. 

This is currently being phased in, and will continue to be phased in up until 2042.

This means that anyone aged 49 or younger, at the time of writing, needs to have had NZ residency for 20 years before qualifying. 

And more changes are being proposed.

In September 2026, NZ First announced an election policy to restrict NZ Super to New Zealand citizens from 2029.

That would exclude permanent residents who aren't citizens.

But keep in mind that that’s a campaign promise. It’s not law (yet).

Ed’s View: Why NZ First's proposal matters

Opes Partners Resident Economist, Ed McKnight says NZ First’s policy is telling. It’s not just the policy itself … it's the party proposing it.

NZ First has historically been a strong defender of NZ Super.

So, the fact that even NZ First is proposing changes could be seen as a "bellwether" – or a sign that the political debate around NZ Super is shifting.

That said, the policy could affect some people more than others.

For many permanent residents, becoming a New Zealand citizen may be an option.

However, some countries don't allow dual citizenship. That means some people could face a choice between keeping their original nationality and qualifying for NZ Super.

It also has flow-on effects for those individuals. Because if they disavow their current citizenship, that could impact if they still get a pension from their home country.

The point is that NZ Super doesn't have to disappear for the rules to change significantly.

How could changes to NZ Super affect your retirement?

Let's say you want to retire on $100,000 a year.

As of 1 April 2026, a single person living alone receives around $28,868 a year in NZ Super in the hand. 

That's almost 29% of your target retirement income.

But, what if NZ Super wasn't available? … You'd need more money invested to make up the difference.

Here's how much extra you might need, assuming you withdraw 4% of your investments each year.

Without NZ Super, you'd need around $722,000 more invested to fund the same retirement income.

That's a big difference.

You can see the latest payment rates in our guide to NZ Superannuation Rates 2026.

Here’s what we think will actually happen to NZ Super?

No one knows exactly what NZ Super will look like in 20 years.

Here at Opes Partners, we don't believe it will disappear altogether.

We do think it's more likely the rules will change.

In particular, we believe two things could happen:

1. The retirement age will eventually increase.
2. Some form of means testing could be introduced.

Means testing is when the government looks at your income or assets to decide how much support you qualify for.

For example, people with more than $1 million in assets could get a reduced (or no) pension. While those with more than $2 million might get nothing.

Australia already uses income and asset tests for its pension.

Something similar could eventually happen in New Zealand.

Should you include NZ Super in your retirement plan?

If you're 63 and planning to retire at 65, the NZ Super age probably won’t change before you retire.

But if you're 35, retirement is still 30 years away. There's much more uncertainty. SO when you’re planning for your retirement, you might want to rely less on the NZ Super.

If NZ Super is still there when you retire, that’s a bonus.