To explain it another way, let’s say you have one dice.

If you roll it and it lands on 1,2,3,4,5 – your property price increased in the last 6 months. But if you roll a 6, it goes down.

Yes, investing in property isn’t a game of chance, but I’m trying to make the statistics tangible for you.

However, sometimes we need to look at the individual regions because the national average doesn’t show what’s happening on the ground in your city.

When you look at what happens to property prices in any given 6-month period:

• In Auckland, property prices went up 75% of the time over 6 months.
• In Wellington, property prices went up 81% of the time over 6 months.
• In Dunedin, property prices went up 68% of the time over 6 months.

What is the cost of waiting 6 months?

Let’s use these numbers to see what would happen to an investor if they wait 6 months.

Let’s say they were planning to buy a $600k property.

Scenario #1 – an average market

On average, property prices tend to increase 3-3.5% over any given 6-month period (it’s 3% in Christchurch and 3.7% in Auckland).

For this example, let’s use 3%.

What would happen if this investor decided not to purchase this property and thought: “I’m good. I’m going to wait 6 months”?

On average, the property will increase $18,000, and they will have lost $18,000 that they could have made.

Scenario #2 – a hot market

However, not every market is average. There are times when house prices can skyrocket above the norm.

For instance, at its hottest house prices in Dunedin increased 29% in just 6 months. This is the fastest increase we could find over a 6-month period.

If an investor purchased a $600K property that went up by 29%. That property would then be worth an extra $174k.

So, if the investor waited 6 months, they would have lost the $174k they would have made.

Scenario #3 – a falling market

Having said that, sometimes property prices will fall. The fastest falling 6-month period we found was also in Dunedin. There, house prices went down by 10%.

So, on that $600k house, if you had timed that market perfectly and had waited 6 months for the lowest point in the market – you would have saved yourself $60k.

It’s essential to consider these 3 scenarios because when investing in property there will be a range of outcomes.

Yes, on average, property prices have increased by 3-3.5% over any given 6-month period. However, not every 6 months is going to be average.

Should I just blindly buy whenever I can?

No. The message isn’t to buy whenever you can … and never wait 6 months.

You need to consider whether you are using the “I want to wait 6 months” idea as an emotional crutch to delay decision-making.

There will be times when it is logical to wait 6 months.

And similarly, there are also times when investors use this line to delay … and end up making a worse financial decision (not investing at all) through this procrastination.

So, if you do feel uncertain or unsure and want to wait 6 months, ask yourself: What do you expect to see change for you to invest?

This will help you decide whether you are being logical or emotional.